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Prediction for CME (2025-10-28T03:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-10-28T03:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42140/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the E in only SOHO LASCO C2/C3, likely obscured by an eclipse in GOES CCOR-1 and too faint for STEREO A COR2. The source is likely a filament which spanned approximately N22E54-N18E27 at 2025-10-28T02:00Z, slowly erupting as early as 2025-10-28T02:09Z and speeds up around 2025-10-28T03:21Z, observed best in GOES SUVI 171/195/284/304 and on the east limb viewed from STEREO A EUVI 195/304. No arrival signature observed at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-01T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/42152/1
Model Inputs:
2025-10-28T03:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-41.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=398.0, HalfAngle=26.0, Time21.5=2025-10-28T12:07Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-11-01T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-29T10:16Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-31T14:00Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-30T16:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251028_120800_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 77.02 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) on 2025-10-28T18:59Z

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